PHIEagles
8-7
24
TBD
FedExField
46°F
3 mph
0
WASCommanders
7-8
TBD
FedExField
46°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
7
7
24
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
89
Total Plays
71
44
Yards / Play
5.1
2.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.49
Passing Yards
231
68
Comp/Att
29/34(85%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
2.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.57
Rushing Yards
129
21
Rush Attempts
34
12
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
8
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
57%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.43
-2.26
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-12
-30
Sack EPA
-3.65
-9.79
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
25
15
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-1.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.3
Home QB Adjustment
-86.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
+6.8
Final Difference
-139.2
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-86.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U