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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
8-7
20
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
6-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
6
20
Commanders
10
6
0
0
16

Spread

WAS logo
+5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
330
312
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
212
218
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.13
Rushing Yards
118
94
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-1.76
-6.40
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-57.8
Home QB Adjustment
-50.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-35.3
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
10/10
-0.2
52
10/14
-2.7
34
10/24
1.4
63
10/31
-1.2
44
11/07
2.4
71
11/14
1.8
66
11/21
2.9
74
11/28
-7.9
9
12/21
4.6
82
12/26
-0.1
52
T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-50.7
Value
Ptile
10/10
-5.1
19
10/17
-3.8
25
10/24
3.6
79
10/31
-5.4
17
11/14
0.0
54
11/21
3.4
77
11/29
-0.4
49
12/05
-0.1
52
12/12
-9.6
5
12/26
-10.9
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
3
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
26
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-6
L
W
U
10/24
-11
L
L
O
10/31
38
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
11
W
W
O
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/05
15
W
W
O
12/21
10
W
P
O
12/26
24
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
P
O
12/26
-42
L
L
O