PHIEagles
8-7
20
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
16
WASCommanders
6-9
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
6
20
Commanders
10
6
0
0
16
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
312
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
212
218
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.13
Rushing Yards
118
94
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-1.76
-6.40
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-57.8
Home QB Adjustment
-50.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-35.3
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-50.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
3
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
26
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U