PHIEagles
3-4
33
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
2-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Eagles
0
7
7
7
6
27
Cowboys
7
0
7
13
0
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
459
411
Total Plays
72
71
Yards / Play
6.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.13
Passing Yards
287
277
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.03
Rushing Yards
172
134
Rush Attempts
35
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.48
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-2.45
-6.48
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
70
58
Penalty EPA
-5.90
-8.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+18.5
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-89.6
Home QB Adjustment
-103.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-103.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
30
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U