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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ cowboys week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
6-6
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
29
DALCowboys
7-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Eagles
0
0
6
17
0
23
Cowboys
3
3
3
14
6
29

Spread

DAL logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
256
576
Total Plays
48
93
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.01
Passing Yards
222
434
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
42/54(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
34
142
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.58
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
16
32
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
11%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.58
-15.17
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-21
Sack EPA
-5.80
-6.29
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
49
110
Penalty EPA
-5.09
-9.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+27.6
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
10/11
7.3
91
10/21
4.2
76
10/28
3.2
70
11/11
4.9
79
11/18
-11.7
2
11/25
-0.9
40
12/03
3.7
73
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
-8.1
8
09/30
0.9
52
10/07
-4.0
22
10/14
6.8
88
10/21
2.6
67
11/05
-2.5
31
11/11
1.7
60
11/18
-1.3
37
11/22
4.5
77
11/29
-1.4
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
17
7
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
26
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
10/11
21
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/11
-7
L
L
O
11/18
-41
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
L
U
12/03
15
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
33
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
11/05
-14
L
L
O
11/11
7
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
W
U
11/22
8
W
W
O
11/29
3
W
W
U