PHIEagles
4-9
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
037
DALCowboys
5-9
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
14
3
0
0
17
Cowboys
3
17
10
7
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
477
513
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
6.7
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.22
Passing Yards
326
362
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
12.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.40
Rushing Yards
151
151
Rush Attempts
29
34
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
41%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.44
-5.19
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-15
Sack EPA
-4.02
-3.41
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
115
73
Penalty EPA
-10.92
-5.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-64.4
Home QB Adjustment
-70.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
-68.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-70.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U