PHIEagles
7-4
34
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
07
ATLFalcons
6-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
3
8
7
28
Falcons
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
295
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.35
Passing Yards
277
234
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.30
Rushing Yards
103
61
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-20.24
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-1
Sack EPA
-2.53
-2.64
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
62
30
Penalty EPA
-10.85
-4.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model57.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons+5.0
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-21.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
-52.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
C. Redman
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
10
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
13
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U