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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ falcons week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
7-4
34
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
7
ATLFalcons
6-5
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
10
3
8
7
28
Falcons
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

PHI logo
-5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
380
295
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.35
Passing Yards
277
234
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.30
Rushing Yards
103
61
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-20.24
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-1
Sack EPA
-2.53
-2.64
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
62
30
Penalty EPA
-10.85
-4.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model57.7%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-21.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
-53.8
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
01/18
7.5
93
09/13
1.6
60
10/11
7.4
90
10/18
-6.1
14
10/26
-2.8
32
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
-5.4
17
11/15
7.5
91
11/22
1.0
56
11/29
-0.2
48
C. Redman headshot

C. Redman

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
-1.3
37
09/15
-8.0
5
09/30
0.4
52
10/06
5.2
81
10/13
-5.5
14
10/20
-1.2
38
12/10
0.5
53
12/16
-10.3
2
12/23
3.3
73
12/30
7.5
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
10
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
16
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
13
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
13
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-26
L
L
O
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/11
19
W
W
O
10/18
-4
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/01
23
W
W
O
11/08
-4
L
L
U
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
4
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
10/11
35
W
W
O
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-9
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
3
W
L
U