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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ jets week 13, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
5-7
33
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
0
18
NYJJets
3-8
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
17
3
6
33
Jets
12
6
0
0
18

Spread

PHI logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
418
281
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
6.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.04
Passing Yards
233
211
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.57
+0.03
Rushing Yards
185
70
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.47
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-1.90
-3.07
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
66
Penalty EPA
-2.54
-9.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-151
Home nfelo
1,334
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.0
Home QB Adjustment
-39.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
+54.7
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
12/22
-5.8
16
12/29
1.4
65
09/13
2.1
60
09/20
3.0
67
09/24
-3.3
22
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
12/20
-0.3
44
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-39.6
Value
Ptile
09/12
-6.8
12
09/19
-11.7
2
09/26
-12.5
1
10/03
-0.3
51
10/10
-8.2
7
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Jets Defense
Eagles logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
3
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Jets Offense vs Eagles Defense
Jets logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9

EPA

EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
13
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
26
Interceptions / Game
29
21
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
20
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/03
-12
L
L
O
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/14
-6
L
W
U
10/24
-11
L
L
O
10/31
38
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
11
W
W
O
11/28
-6
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-19
L
L
U
09/26
-26
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/24
-41
L
L
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U