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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ lions week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
-
38
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
35
DETLions
-
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
18
14
0
32
Lions
7
7
7
14
35

Spread

DET logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
455
386
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
6.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.11
Passing Yards
239
205
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.06
Rushing Yards
216
181
Rush Attempts
39
28
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.37
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
59%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
10
9
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.98
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-0.60
-2.54
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
61
65
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-8.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model61.2%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-79.5
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
10/24
1.4
63
10/31
-1.2
44
11/07
2.4
71
11/14
1.8
66
11/21
2.9
74
11/28
-7.9
9
12/21
4.6
82
12/26
-0.1
52
01/02
-0.7
48
01/16
-3.5
27
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36
12/19
4.4
81
01/09
3.4
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Eagles logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
31
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Lions logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16

EPA

EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
25
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
2
9
Fumbles / Game
11
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
4
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
11
W
W
O
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/05
15
W
W
O
12/21
10
W
P
O
12/26
24
W
W
O
01/02
4
W
L
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
01/16
-16
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

3-6-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
01/02
-22
L
L
O
01/09
7
W
W
O