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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ packers week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
7-2
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
13 mph
53
GBPackers
6-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
7
7
20
Packers
11
13
3
8
35

Spread

GB logo
-6

Total

OVER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
429
475
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
5.5
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.15
Passing Yards
320
365
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.53
Rushing Yards
109
110
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.65
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-28.32
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-2
Sack EPA
-6.26
-1.14
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
52
Penalty EPA
-11.61
+1.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+163.1
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-131.2
Market Regression
+26.7
Final Difference
206.5
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-131.2
Value
Ptile
10/21
-0.9
43
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
12/17
-13.3
1
12/30
-5.7
14
11/10
2.6
69
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Value
Ptile
01/05
-2.1
38
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
09/21
-1.9
36
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
10/12
3.9
76
10/19
6.7
88
10/26
5.2
83
11/09
11.3
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
4
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26

EPA

EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
21
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
12
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
11
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U
10/05
6
W
W
O
10/12
27
W
W
U
10/26
-4
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/10
24
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-3
L
P
U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
21
W
W
O
10/26
-21
L
L
O
11/09
41
W
W
O