PHIEagles
7-2
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
13 mph
53
GBPackers
6-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
7
7
20
Packers
11
13
3
8
35
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
475
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
5.5
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.15
Passing Yards
320
365
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.53
Rushing Yards
109
110
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.65
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-28.32
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-2
Sack EPA
-6.26
-1.14
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
52
Penalty EPA
-11.61
+1.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
Packers-6.0
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+163.1
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-131.2
Market Regression
+26.7
Final Difference
206.5
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-131.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
4
15
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
12
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U