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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ panthers week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-1
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
6 mph
23
CARPanthers
4-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
11
7
28
Panthers
3
7
6
7
23

Spread

PHI logo
+3

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
312
305
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
5.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
209
225
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.26
Rushing Yards
103
80
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-10.56
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-14
Sack EPA
-9.56
-2.83
Penalties
10
1
Penalty Yards
126
--
Penalty EPA
-10.04
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
12/04
-2.5
29
12/11
-1.3
39
12/18
-4.3
18
12/22
-0.9
42
01/01
2.2
66
09/10
1.9
66
09/17
0.7
57
09/24
-0.9
46
10/01
0.4
54
10/08
6.6
89
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.5
44
12/11
-6.4
10
12/19
0.6
54
12/24
-8.0
5
01/01
-8.0
5
09/10
-1.6
41
09/17
-4.3
23
09/24
-9.6
4
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Eagles logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3

EPA

EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
11
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Panthers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1

EPA

EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
15
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
21
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-18
L
L
O
12/11
-5
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/22
5
W
W
O
01/01
14
W
W
U
09/10
13
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
2
W
W
O
10/08
27
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-33
L
L
O
12/11
12
W
W
U
12/19
11
W
W
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-1
L
W
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
6
W
L
U
09/24
-21
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O