PHIEagles
4-1
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
6 mph
23
CARPanthers
4-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
72°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
11
7
28
Panthers
3
7
6
7
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
305
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
5.1
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
209
225
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.26
Rushing Yards
103
80
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.50
-10.56
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-14
Sack EPA
-9.56
-2.83
Penalties
10
1
Penalty Yards
126
--
Penalty EPA
-10.04
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
15
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U