PHIEagles
1-1
15
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
012
NOSaints
2-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
0
15
15
Saints
3
0
0
9
12
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
462
219
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
6.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.19
Passing Yards
288
130
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.02
Rushing Yards
174
89
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.49
-1.03
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-12.44
-2.08
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
25
Penalty EPA
-5.78
-1.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+54.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
-8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+19.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
8
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
3
12
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
3
10
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U