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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ seahawks week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-7
14
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
2 mph
31
SEASeahawks
4-7
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
0
7
14
Seahawks
7
10
7
1
25

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
330
347
Total Plays
56
52
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.14
Passing Yards
198
173
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
13/16(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.57
Rushing Yards
132
174
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.81
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-2.28
-4.23
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
28
30
Penalty EPA
-4.25
-3.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+66.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-67.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.4
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.1
70
09/19
-7.4
8
09/26
-1.6
39
10/03
0.2
50
10/10
-0.7
45
10/18
-3.5
26
10/31
4.7
81
11/21
-0.7
44
11/20
-1.5
39
11/27
3.7
76
T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
12/13
-8.8
6
09/11
-4.4
22
09/18
-4.0
25
09/25
-3.9
26
10/02
5.5
84
10/09
-3.8
27
11/06
-6.7
11
11/13
1.0
60
11/20
-7.5
8
11/27
-4.7
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Eagles logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15

EPA

EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
15
3
EPA / Rush
3
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
16
12
Seahawks Offense vs Eagles Defense
Seahawks logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16

EPA

EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
27
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
21
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
21
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-13
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/30
27
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/13
-4
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/27
-18
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-24
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/02
-2
L
W
O
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
P
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/06
-10
L
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O