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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ bills week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-9
34
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0
31
BUFBills
4-7
BUF logo
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
10
7
7
3
34
Bills
14
3
7
7
0
31

Spread

ATL logo
+5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
423
405
Total Plays
83
63
Yards / Play
5.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.14
Passing Yards
272
--
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.11
Rushing Yards
151
195
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
5.0
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.68
-4.67
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-12.39
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
49
Penalty EPA
-9.50
-8.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+17.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
93.4
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Value
Ptile
09/15
8.9
94
09/22
2.1
65
09/29
5.9
86
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
10/27
-7.7
9
11/03
-3.0
32
11/10
1.2
59
11/17
-5.4
18
11/21
1.3
60
E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.4
73
09/15
2.5
67
09/22
-5.8
15
09/29
-8.7
5
10/03
-3.6
27
11/10
-4.7
20
11/17
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Falcons logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
23
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bills logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
9
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
29
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
7
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
U
11/10
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-4
L
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/10
-13
L
L
U
11/17
23
W
W
O