ATLFalcons
2-9
34
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
031
BUFBills
4-7
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
10
7
7
3
34
Bills
14
3
7
7
0
31
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
405
Total Plays
83
63
Yards / Play
5.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.14
Passing Yards
272
--
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.11
Rushing Yards
151
195
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
5.0
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.68
-4.67
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-39
--
Sack EPA
-12.39
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
49
Penalty EPA
-9.50
-8.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
Falcons+5.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+17.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
93.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
9
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
29
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U