ATLFalcons
3-1
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
5 mph
16
DENBroncos
4-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
3
7
3
23
Broncos
0
3
0
13
16
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
267
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
6.0
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
250
183
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.08
Rushing Yards
122
84
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
17%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.66
-2.57
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-40
Sack EPA
-3.64
-6.89
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
78
57
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-7.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos-4.0
Expected Value
+19.2%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+97.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+38.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
-19.4
Final Difference
174.5
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
P. Lynch
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+38.4
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
8
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Broncos Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
25
24
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
12
17
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U