ATLFalcons
8-5
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
2 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
4-9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
0
7
24
Buccaneers
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
373
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
6.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.13
Passing Yards
209
289
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.46
Rushing Yards
201
84
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.95
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-0.55
-2.00
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
60
53
Penalty EPA
-7.53
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-140
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
-29.0
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
20
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U