ATLFalcons
6-9
34
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
5 mph
32
TBBuccaneers
5-10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
17
10
34
Buccaneers
7
10
3
12
32
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
489
433
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
6.4
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.19
Passing Yards
380
341
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.23
Rushing Yards
109
92
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.35
-4.43
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-0.84
-1.43
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
85
30
Penalty EPA
-7.95
-3.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
3
26
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U