ATLFalcons
4-5
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
025
ARICardinals
1-8
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
14
3
6
23
Cardinals
3
9
10
3
25
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
352
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
3.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
70
230
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.20
Rushing Yards
184
122
Rush Attempts
41
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.67
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-19
Sack EPA
-4.95
-4.00
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
43
112
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-10.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+74.7
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+57.4
Home QB Adjustment
+68.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
6.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+68.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U