ATLFalcons
-
40
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph
24
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
10
14
6
40
Chiefs
3
14
0
7
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
393
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
6.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.07
Passing Yards
292
241
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.05
Rushing Yards
84
152
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.16
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.63
-6.04
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
12
25
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-1.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-39.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
4
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U