ATLFalcons
4-0
24
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
17
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
52°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
17
24
Commanders
0
1
3
7
11
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
316
Total Plays
81
48
Yards / Play
5.2
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
338
187
Comp/Att
34/52(65%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.25
Rushing Yards
83
129
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
12
Passing 1st downs
21
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.39
-6.61
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-1.81
-4.55
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-1.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+37.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+37.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
30
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
2
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
5
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-1-1
O/U