ATLFalcons
2-3
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
9 mph
28
MIADolphins
1-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
13
7
10
30
Dolphins
7
0
7
14
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
413
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
6.3
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.02
Passing Yards
325
281
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
32/40(80%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.14
Rushing Yards
72
132
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.66
-13.31
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-1.67
-1.87
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
29
44
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-5.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+23.5
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.0
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
7.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
12
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U