ATLFalcons
0-1
22
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
71°F
9 mph
21
PHIEagles
1-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
71°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
9
7
22
Eagles
0
7
3
11
21
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
367
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.11
Passing Yards
233
179
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.06
Rushing Yards
152
188
Rush Attempts
28
38
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
22%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.73
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-4
Sack EPA
-1.62
-1.13
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-1.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.5
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
10
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U