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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ eagles week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
0-1
22
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
71°F
9 mph
21
PHIEagles
1-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
71°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
9
7
22
Eagles
0
7
3
11
21

Spread

ATL logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
385
367
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.11
Passing Yards
233
179
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.06
Rushing Yards
152
188
Rush Attempts
28
38
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
22%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.73
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-4
Sack EPA
-1.62
-1.13
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-1.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.5
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
01/15
9.6
95
09/10
4.7
79
09/14
10.0
97
09/24
3.7
74
10/01
-5.3
18
10/08
1.1
55
10/15
-2.2
34
10/23
9.3
96
10/29
4.9
81
09/08
-6.5
10
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Value
Ptile
11/20
-3.3
27
11/26
7.4
92
12/03
4.1
76
12/10
1.4
59
12/18
1.7
61
12/25
4.1
76
12/31
2.6
67
01/07
-9.9
3
01/15
0.1
50
09/06
-1.6
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
11
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
6
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15

EPA

EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
4
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
10
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-3
L
L
O
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-2
L
L
U
12/24
19
W
W
U
12/31
-20
L
L
O
01/07
-31
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-23
L
L
O
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/25
8
W
L
O
12/31
-4
L
L
O
01/07
-17
L
L
U
01/15
-23
L
L
U
09/06
5
W
W
O