ATLFalcons
6-0
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
16 mph
17
PHIEagles
3-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
10
3
3
30
Eagles
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
270
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.06
Passing Yards
246
178
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.01
Rushing Yards
146
92
Rush Attempts
37
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-13
Sack EPA
-2.73
-3.30
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
57
Penalty EPA
-3.65
-6.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+28.1
Final Difference
43.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U