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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ eagles week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
6-0
30
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
16 mph
17
PHIEagles
3-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
58°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
10
3
3
30
Eagles
0
7
3
7
17

Spread

ATL logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
392
270
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.06
Passing Yards
246
178
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.01
Rushing Yards
146
92
Rush Attempts
37
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-13
Sack EPA
-2.73
-3.30
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
57
Penalty EPA
-3.65
-6.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+28.0
Final Difference
43.3
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
12/15
5.8
85
12/26
6.8
90
01/01
-0.5
48
01/08
-3.0
31
09/09
12.4
99
09/17
4.0
75
09/23
5.2
82
09/30
-0.7
44
10/07
4.5
79
10/14
-3.6
27
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
12/11
-5.2
18
12/18
7.5
92
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
4.7
80
09/09
-3.8
26
09/16
6.6
89
09/23
-6.3
12
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
1.0
56
10/14
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Falcons logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Eagles logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
27
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
29
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
27
W
W
O
12/26
-29
L
L
O
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/08
-22
L
L
U
09/09
16
W
W
O
09/17
6
W
W
U
09/23
24
W
W
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
7
W
W
U
10/14
3
W
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
16
W
W
U
12/18
26
W
W
O
12/24
13
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
P
09/09
1
W
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/23
-21
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
W
U
10/07
-2
L
W
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O