ATLFalcons
11-6
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
32°F
16 mph
15
PHIEagles
13-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
32°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
0
0
10
Eagles
0
9
3
3
15
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
334
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
195
238
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.29
Rushing Yards
86
96
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+4.46
-4.65
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-4.36
-2.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
73
24
Penalty EPA
-5.95
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Eagles+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+91.7
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-65.7
Home QB Adjustment
-83.4
Away QB Adjustment
-17.7
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
-27.7
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.7
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-83.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
11
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U