ATLFalcons
2-1
7
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
023
JAXJaguars
1-2
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
7
0
7
Jaguars
7
4
0
6
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
300
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.12
Passing Yards
160
195
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.15
Rushing Yards
127
105
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.97
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-12
Sack EPA
-9.49
-4.49
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-3.82
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
41.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
25
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
19
29
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U