nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ jaguars week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-1
7
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0
23
JAXJaguars
1-2
JAX logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
7
0
7
Jaguars
7
4
0
6
17

Spread

JAX logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
287
300
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.12
Passing Yards
160
195
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.15
Rushing Yards
127
105
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.97
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-12
Sack EPA
-9.49
-4.49
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-3.82
-3.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
41.2
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Ridder headshot

D. Ridder

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Value
Ptile
12/18
-6.7
10
12/24
-1.3
44
01/01
-2.2
35
01/08
1.5
63
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
2.5
67
09/24
-10.6
2
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9

EPA

EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
25
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Jaguars logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19

EPA

EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
19
29
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
3
W
P
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
U
01/01
1
W
L
U
01/08
13
W
W
O
09/10
14
W
W
U
09/17
1
W
L
O
09/24
-14
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O