ATLFalcons
4-6
21
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
14
JAXJaguars
2-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
7
7
0
21
Jaguars
0
3
8
3
14
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
359
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.05
Passing Yards
183
218
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.05
Rushing Yards
149
141
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
42%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.51
-7.70
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-1.63
-1.82
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-8.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,353
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
9.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
30
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U