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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ jaguars week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-6
21
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
14
JAXJaguars
2-8
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
7
7
0
21
Jaguars
0
3
8
3
14

Spread

ATL logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
332
359
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.05
Passing Yards
183
218
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.05
Rushing Yards
149
141
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
42%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.51
-7.70
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-1.63
-1.82
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-8.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model48.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.1
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
8.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.1
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.7
16
09/19
0.6
57
09/26
1.3
62
10/03
6.0
88
10/10
7.2
91
10/24
1.3
62
10/31
-7.0
11
11/07
8.6
94
11/14
-11.7
2
11/18
-7.9
9
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11
11/21
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Falcons logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
32
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
30
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Jaguars Offense vs Falcons Defense
Jaguars logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27

EPA

EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
21
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-26
L
L
U
09/19
-23
L
L
O
09/26
3
W
W
U
10/03
-4
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/24
2
W
W
O
10/31
-6
L
L
U
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/14
-40
L
L
U
11/18
-25
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-20
L
L
U