ATLFalcons
0-3
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
9 mph
30
GBPackers
3-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
6
7
16
Packers
7
13
7
3
30
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
403
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
4.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.29
Passing Yards
249
315
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
27/33(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.79
Rushing Yards
78
88
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-36
-12
Sack EPA
-5.74
-1.84
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
23
30
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
7
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U