ATLFalcons
5-7
37
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
043
GBPackers
9-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
10
20
37
Packers
7
24
3
9
43
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
465
502
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
7.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.40
Passing Yards
374
323
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.51
Rushing Yards
91
179
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.11
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-4
Sack EPA
-1.35
-1.22
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
11
40
Penalty EPA
-2.76
-4.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+304
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.6
Home QB Adjustment
+33.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+47.7
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
14
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
22
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
2
29
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U