ATLFalcons
4-8
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
10 mph
34
GBPackers
4-7
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
0
13
20
Packers
7
7
14
0
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
300
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.17
Passing Yards
237
162
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.09
Rushing Yards
107
138
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.04
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-25
-34
Sack EPA
-5.35
-5.77
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
101
37
Penalty EPA
-11.21
-3.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
-29.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U