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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ packers week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-8
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
10 mph
34
GBPackers
4-7
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
0
13
20
Packers
7
7
14
0
28

Spread

GB logo
-4

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
344
300
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.17
Passing Yards
237
162
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.09
Rushing Yards
107
138
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.04
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-25
-34
Sack EPA
-5.35
-5.77
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
101
37
Penalty EPA
-11.21
-3.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
-29.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
10.2
96
09/30
8.6
93
10/07
-1.6
35
10/14
8.6
93
10/22
5.1
80
11/04
6.8
89
11/11
6.9
89
11/18
-1.0
39
11/22
2.7
68
12/02
-3.8
23
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
09/23
1.6
58
09/30
-0.3
44
10/07
6.9
89
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
11/04
1.3
56
11/11
1.6
58
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Falcons logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23

EPA

EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
24
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Packers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
14
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
-1
L
L
O
10/07
-24
L
L
O
10/14
5
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/04
24
W
W
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-14
L
L
O
09/30
22
W
W
U
10/07
-8
L
L
O
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
11/04
-14
L
L
U
11/11
19
W
W
U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U