ATLFalcons
1-6
25
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
76°F
8 mph
17
CARPanthers
3-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
10
3
6
25
Panthers
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
304
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
5.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.02
Passing Yards
270
157
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.15
Rushing Yards
131
147
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
33%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-2.79
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-22
Sack EPA
-1.75
-1.25
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
-15.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
27
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U