ATLFalcons
2-7
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
11 mph
3
CARPanthers
5-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
4
10
6
3
23
Panthers
0
0
0
3
3
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
347
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.45
Passing Yards
295
270
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
31/50(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.36
Rushing Yards
54
77
Rush Attempts
26
15
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.14
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-55
Sack EPA
-4.95
-11.31
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
68
Penalty EPA
--
-13.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+44.7
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-80.2
Home QB Adjustment
-84.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-46.6
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-84.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
1
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U