ATLFalcons
6-7
7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
47°F
11 mph
9
CARPanthers
1-12
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
47°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
0
7
Panthers
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
32
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
283
Total Plays
51
63
Yards / Play
4.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
154
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.16
Rushing Yards
52
129
Rush Attempts
31
36
Yards / Rush
1.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.59
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-3.73
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
35
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-3.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.7
Home QB Adjustment
-41.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-41.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U