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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ raiders week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
0-1
35
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
7 mph
28
OAKRaiders
1-0
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
13
8
14
35
Raiders
0
7
7
14
28

Spread

ATL logo
+4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
530
454
Total Plays
65
71
Yards / Play
8.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.14
Passing Yards
389
299
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
34/45(76%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.20
Rushing Yards
141
155
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
27
29
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.37
-0.55
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
72
58
Penalty EPA
-8.14
-12.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+100.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
-59.2
Final Difference
111.9
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/01
8.1
94
11/08
2.3
66
11/22
-1.5
40
11/29
-2.9
29
12/06
-1.5
40
12/13
-3.5
25
12/20
-2.3
34
12/27
3.8
78
01/03
1.6
63
09/11
4.1
79
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
11/08
4.3
80
11/15
1.3
61
11/22
-4.3
19
11/29
6.6
89
12/06
-3.3
27
12/13
-5.3
13
12/20
-2.2
34
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Falcons logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Raiders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
17
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
13
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/08
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/13
-38
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
P
12/06
-14
L
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O