ATLFalcons
0-1
35
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
7 mph
28
OAKRaiders
1-0
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
79°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
13
8
14
35
Raiders
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
530
454
Total Plays
65
71
Yards / Play
8.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.14
Passing Yards
389
299
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
34/45(76%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.20
Rushing Yards
141
155
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
29
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.37
-0.55
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
72
58
Penalty EPA
-8.14
-12.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+98.7
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
-59.0
Final Difference
112.1
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
13
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
1-9
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U