ATLFalcons
0-1
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
031
LARRams
0-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
9
19
Rams
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
337
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.10
Passing Yards
173
272
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.04
Rushing Yards
90
65
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.29
-14.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-3.42
-0.48
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
29
61
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-5.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
Falcons+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+44.1
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
224.2
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
27
31
EPA / Rush
19
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
22
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U