ATLFalcons
10-6
26
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
62°F
3 mph
13
LARRams
11-5
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
62°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
7
6
7
26
Rams
0
10
0
3
13
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
361
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.08
Passing Yards
198
246
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.09
Rushing Yards
124
115
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
7.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+7.11
-5.10
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-20
-13
Sack EPA
-3.88
-5.65
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-3.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model61.4%
Spread Pick
Falcons+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+105.7
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+30.1
Net QB Adjustment
+56.2
Home QB Adjustment
+39.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
+1.2
Final Difference
80.9
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U