ATLFalcons
1-1
45
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
032
NOSaints
0-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
21
10
1
39
Saints
7
10
8
7
32
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
476
Total Plays
63
80
Yards / Play
7.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.48
+0.13
Passing Yards
225
359
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
36/54(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.01
Rushing Yards
217
117
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.34
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
32
Passing 1st downs
13
21
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
45%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
71%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.05
-12.22
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-17
Sack EPA
-5.38
-2.96
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
75
Penalty EPA
--
-5.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+41.8
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
18
17
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U