ATLFalcons
5-0
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
1-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
14
21
Saints
8
0
10
7
25
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
52
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
385
Total Plays
70
72
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
263
304
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.44
Rushing Yards
150
81
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-11.40
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-9.63
-1.23
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
41
15
Penalty EPA
-5.39
-1.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-18.9
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
17
32
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U