ATLFalcons
1-7
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
09
NOSaints
7-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
10
0
13
26
Saints
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
310
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.32
Passing Yards
174
258
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.36
Rushing Yards
143
52
Rush Attempts
34
11
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.38
--
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-46
Sack EPA
-1.74
-12.37
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
48
90
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-13.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model84.2%
Spread Pick
Falcons+13.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
-6.0
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
-22.5
Home Bye Adj
+14.3
Away Bye Adj
-38.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.9
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
291.1
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U