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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ saints week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-7
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
9
NOSaints
7-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
10
0
13
26
Saints
3
3
3
0
9

Spread

ATL logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
317
310
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.32
Passing Yards
174
258
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.36
Rushing Yards
143
52
Rush Attempts
34
11
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.38
--
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-46
Sack EPA
-1.74
-12.37
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
48
90
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-13.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
-6.1
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
-22.8
Home Bye Adj
+14.5
Away Bye Adj
-39.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
289.7
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
2.3
65
12/30
5.2
81
09/08
1.7
66
09/15
-0.7
48
09/22
8.0
93
09/29
1.7
66
10/06
6.4
88
10/13
10.0
97
10/20
-8.5
7
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
23
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
13
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
-14
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-1
L
L
O
10/20
-27
L
L
U
10/27
-7
L
W
U
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O
09/29
2
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U