ATLFalcons
6-3
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
2-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
10
0
17
Saints
0
17
3
0
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
468
365
Total Plays
73
52
Yards / Play
6.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.02
Passing Yards
287
--
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.25
Rushing Yards
181
96
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.13
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.75
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
45
76
Penalty EPA
-4.37
-5.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
23
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U