ATLFalcons
4-6
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
9-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
7
7
17
Saints
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
61
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
312
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
5.3
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
340
162
Comp/Att
35/47(74%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.17
Rushing Yards
26
150
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
1.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-16.36
-3.52
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-37
-9
Sack EPA
-14.79
-2.88
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
19
Penalty EPA
--
-2.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,701
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+35.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
286.7
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+35.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U