ATLFalcons
4-1
24
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
26
SEASeahawks
3-1
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
21
0
24
Seahawks
7
10
0
9
26
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
333
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
310
261
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.21
Rushing Yards
52
72
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-8.74
-1.87
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-7.34
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+94.2
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U