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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ seahawks week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-1
24
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph
26
SEASeahawks
3-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
21
0
24
Seahawks
7
10
0
9
26

Spread

ATL logo
+7

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
362
333
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
310
261
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.21
Rushing Yards
52
72
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-8.74
-1.87
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-7.34
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
12/06
-1.5
40
12/13
-3.5
25
12/20
-2.3
34
12/27
3.8
78
01/03
1.6
63
09/11
4.1
79
09/18
8.1
93
09/26
1.6
60
10/02
12.5
99
10/09
0.7
55
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
10.9
98
12/20
7.2
92
12/27
0.2
51
01/03
4.5
81
01/10
-5.1
14
01/17
2.7
71
09/11
-1.7
35
09/18
-1.0
41
09/25
0.1
49
10/02
5.3
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
2
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6

EPA

EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
4
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17

EPA

EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
21
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
26
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/13
-38
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
30
W
W
U
01/10
1
W
L
U
01/17
-7
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
U
09/25
19
W
W
O
10/02
10
W
W
O