ATLFalcons
5-1
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph
7
TENTitans
1-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
0
10
Titans
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
256
Total Plays
69
52
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
179
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.39
Rushing Yards
127
77
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.88
-8.10
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.52
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
53
45
Penalty EPA
-0.45
-0.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-66.8
Home QB Adjustment
-67.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-44.1
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-67.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
5
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
29
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
1
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
29
29
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Titans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U