NYGGiants
3-2
26
TBD
Candlestick Park
61°F
7 mph
3
SF49ers
4-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
61°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
13
3
26
49ers
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
314
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.33
Passing Yards
--
234
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.41
Rushing Yards
149
80
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.61
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-48
Sack EPA
--
-10.19
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
20
35
Penalty EPA
-2.01
-5.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
12
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
13
27
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U