NYGGiants
6-3
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
16 mph
31
CINBengals
3-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
0
7
13
Bengals
14
3
14
0
31
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
275
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.35
Rushing Yards
129
76
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
6.5
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.33
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-10.15
--
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
12
3
EPA / Rush
7
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U