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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bengals week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
6-3
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
16 mph
31
CINBengals
3-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
0
7
13
Bengals
14
3
14
0
31

Spread

CIN logo
+4

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
318
275
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.35
Rushing Yards
129
76
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
6.5
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.33
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-10.15
--
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
+5.0
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
02/05
3.6
74
09/05
-0.9
43
09/16
6.1
87
09/20
5.1
81
09/30
4.4
78
10/07
5.1
82
10/14
0.4
52
10/21
0.5
52
10/28
-4.6
21
11/04
-7.6
7
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
01/01
0.2
53
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
5.9
87
09/30
4.1
75
10/07
-3.0
29
10/14
3.0
70
10/21
-4.2
23
11/04
-1.7
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Giants logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
12
3
EPA / Rush
7
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Bengals logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
8
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
18
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/05
4
W
W
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
L
O
09/20
29
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
L
U
10/07
14
W
W
O
10/14
23
W
W
U
10/21
4
W
L
U
10/28
5
W
W
O
11/04
-4
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
7
W
P
O
09/23
7
W
W
O
09/30
17
W
W
U
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/14
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
O