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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ broncos week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-4
32
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
3 mph
33
DENBroncos
4-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
6
6
13
32
Broncos
0
0
0
33
33

Spread

NYG logo
+8

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
387
411
Total Plays
70
78
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.14
Passing Yards
268
269
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
27/52(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.03
Rushing Yards
119
142
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.60
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-15
-14
Sack EPA
-4.42
-1.78
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
36
89
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-16.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model78.6%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+258
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+71.0
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
+14.9
Net QB Adjustment
+41.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-33.2
Market Regression
+7.5
Final Difference
226.4
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Dart headshot

J. Dart

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-33.2
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
39
10/05
1.2
60
10/09
4.5
80
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
12/19
5.6
82
12/28
3.5
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
38
09/29
7.0
92
10/05
1.6
62
10/12
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Broncos Defense
Giants logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Broncos Offense vs Giants Defense
Broncos logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
17
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
21
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
12/22
-27
L
L
U
12/29
12
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
U
09/07
-15
L
L
U
09/14
-3
L
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/05
4
W
W
U
10/12
2
W
L
U