NYGGiants
3-6
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph
30
TBBuccaneers
6-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
68°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
7
0
0
10
Buccaneers
7
10
10
3
30
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
402
Total Plays
54
76
Yards / Play
4.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.06
Passing Yards
149
308
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.14
Rushing Yards
66
94
Rush Attempts
13
27
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
11%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.59
-6.17
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-4.99
-1.39
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
39
Penalty EPA
-2.54
-4.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+287
Home nfelo
1,666
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+22.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U