NYGGiants
2-5
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
4 mph
20
KCChiefs
3-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
0
7
17
Chiefs
7
7
0
6
20
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
368
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
228
261
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
72
107
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
29
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.78
-9.06
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-14
Sack EPA
-3.94
-1.27
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
88
103
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-10.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-1.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+2.7
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
31
22
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
29
15
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
26
31
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Chiefs Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U