NYGGiants
5-9
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
028
INDColts
8-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
14
3
7
3
27
Colts
0
7
14
7
28
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
402
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
6.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
353
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.28
Rushing Yards
83
49
Rush Attempts
29
16
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
17
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
58%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.82
-5.26
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-1.19
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
24
29
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-4.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+0.1
Final Difference
222.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
19
32
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U