NYGGiants
0-1
29
TBD
FedExField
71°F
030
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
71°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
3
10
9
29
Commanders
0
14
3
13
30
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
407
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
6.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
228
320
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
163
87
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-16
Sack EPA
-7.79
-3.24
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
81
80
Penalty EPA
-7.18
-11.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model55.3%
Spread Pick
Giants+4.0
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-127.9
Home QB Adjustment
-126.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
37.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-126.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U