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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 2, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
0-1
29
TBD
FedExField
71°F
0
30
WASCommanders
0-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
71°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
3
10
9
29
Commanders
0
14
3
13
30

Spread

NYG logo
+4

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
391
407
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
6.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
228
320
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
163
87
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-16
Sack EPA
-7.79
-3.24
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
81
80
Penalty EPA
-7.18
-11.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-127.9
Home QB Adjustment
-126.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
38.4
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
10/18
-1.0
38
10/22
3.5
70
11/02
-1.6
32
11/08
-4.3
17
11/15
4.3
75
11/29
-1.5
33
12/13
-12.9
1
12/27
-5.0
15
01/03
-1.3
35
09/12
2.6
72
T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-126.2
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.9
28
01/09
2.8
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
14
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
26
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-2
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
P
11/15
10
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-19
L
L
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/12
-14
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-3
L
L
O
11/22
11
W
W
U
11/26
25
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
U
12/13
8
W
W
U
12/20
-5
L
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
-8
L
W
O
09/12
-4
L
L
U