NYGGiants
1-7
23
TBD
FedExField
75°F
1 mph
20
WASCommanders
2-5
TBD
FedExField
75°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
10
10
3
0
23
Commanders
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
43
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
402
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
4.7
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.02
Passing Yards
184
365
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.01
Rushing Yards
166
37
Rush Attempts
35
9
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.88
-14.84
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-5.79
-3.88
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-5.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Giants+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
22.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U