NYGGiants
7-5
20
TBD
FedExField
35°F
13 mph
12
WASCommanders
7-5
TBD
FedExField
35°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
8
3
3
14
Commanders
3
0
6
3
12
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
387
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
4.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
228
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.36
Rushing Yards
128
159
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.01
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-12.97
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.04
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+48.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+20.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
21
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U